Web's doomsday around the corner...

[iNFiNiTE]

Source of the news article

PRESSURE is mounting on governments to resolve the internet address crisis amid fears the internet economy will stall as numbers run out in 2010-11.

OECD telecommunications ministers, including Australia's Senator Stephen Conroy, are gathering in Seoul this week and have been warned that only 16 per cent of the currently used IP address space remains unallocated.

"The situation is critical because all new users connecting to the internet, and all businesses that require IP addresses for their growth, will be affected by the lack of readily available IP version 4.0 addresses," an OECD briefing paper says.

Instead, global users have to switch to an upgraded platform, IPv6, that will vastly expand available space to an estimated 340 trillion trillion trillion separate addresses that will support broadband applications, internet-connected devices, smart sensor networks and new services.

In Australia, the federal Department of Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy is preparing to conduct a stocktake of the IPv6-readiness of local networks.

AGIMO last year released a transition strategy for government agencies to IPv6 by 2015.

"In planning for IPv6, agencies will need to manage issues similar to those faced by industry such as the need to develop a sound business case," a department spokesman said. "By managing the process early and collectively, agencies will be able to better align and synchronise their programs, manage technical risks and optimise procurement arrangements."

Geoff Huston, chief scientist of the Asia Pacific Network Information Centre - which manages address allocation within the region - says he hovers between calling the situation "a challenge" and "a crisis".

"The simple observation is that we really should be well into a transition across the entire industry by now, and we are nowhere near that point," he said. "This somewhat unexpected position appears to be based on today's business structure. We have lost any real capacity to perform advance funding of goods and services that we think will be required by customers in the future.

"If the customer base does not want it, and won't pay for it today, then whatever it is does not get manufactured and does not get delivered. And that's where IPv6 is today."

Mr Huston said the technical problem was never intended to be visible to users, but the business dimensions had made it tough to work through.

"The larger ISPs, such as Telstra, have done some experimentation and prototyping and while ISPs aren't operating IPv6 as a commercial offering, there is general awareness and capability," he said.

"The smaller ISPs are in a wait-and-see position. Their customers tend to be small to medium-size business users, and they simply do not see this as part of their requirements at present."

Late last year, the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) signalled that only 700 million of the total 4.3 billion IPv4 addresses remained available for allocation. When IPv4 was adopted nearly 30 years ago, fewer than 500 hosts were connected to the internet, most users had technical expertise and the network was entirely non-commercial.

Now, more than 500 million hosts are connected to the expanding "network of networks" and 1.3 billion people have internet access. The infrastructure now supports economic and social activities worldwide.

Although engineers developed a solution in 1996, adoption has been slow due to technical difficulties (the two systems are not directly compatible, and have to be run in parallel during transition) and cost.

Delays in the transition would contribute to an IPv6 skills shortage, and harm Defence requirements for high levels of interoperability with strategic allies.

"However, a hurried, unplanned and uncontrolled implementation of IPv6 equipment into government networks could create equally significant risks, resulting in system failures and loss of service capability," the DBCDE spokesman said.

"Moreover, at this time we are not aware that there is a systemic threat to the internet from exhaustion of IPv4.

"This is why we're developing an orderly transition strategy, and we would encourage a similarly strategic approach for industry."

But Tony Hill, president of the Internet Society of Australia, warns that major trading partners like China, India, Korea and Japan are advanced in their adoption of IPv6, "and we need to be ready now". "If you want to do business with Asia, you have to make sure you've got an IPv6-enabled website," he said.

"It's a pressing concern, because those nations are building new networks that are IPv6-only."

Mr Hill said Australia's strategy was well-founded, but the 2015 date for completion was too late, given that IPv4 numbers will run out soon.

"If address exhaustion occurs by 2010, there's an urgency that focuses the mind," he said. "That's an issue we'd like to debate with (Communications Minister) Stephen Conroy."

The OECD report, prepared by economists, found a clear need for "a continuing and freely available source of addresses" to allow the internet economy to flourish.

"They say this situation is so important that governments must get involved in the policy dimensions," Mr Hill said.

While very large bills had been forecast for the changeover, many of these were based on pulling out and replacing all existing networks.

"In fact, vendors of networking equipment have been well aware of the issue, and IPv6 capability has been built into equipment since at least 2000," he said.

"Most network owners will probably find they have existing capability that's not switched on.

"Conversion will need management and good network skills, but it also offers the potential for new approaches to security and new ways of doing business."

Until such time, start looking at the countdown clock for the doomsday at penrose.uk6x.com.

Source

[ico]

I think IPv6 may take time in being mainstream in countries who have invested heavily in IPv4.......

[IronManForever]

I've been hearing about IPv6 since ages. But nothing new is anywhere around the corner because the Industry already has allocated resources and invested heavily in the existing framework. Hence the delay and dillemma.

[amritpal2489]

it aint so easy guys......

[ax3]

true very true ...... this web 2.0 is also killing the net .......