2008: Linux’s year on the desktop

[Cyrus_the_virus]

Desktop Linux hurts Microsoft
Linux has kept a big chunk of the server business out of Microsoft’s hands. But in 2008, Linux will hurt Microsoft on the desktop. Here’s how.

A new computing platform
Thanks to Moore’s Law and evolving application needs, a new computing platform arrives every 10 years. Mainframes in the ’50s, minicomputers in the ’60s, PCs in the ’70s, microcontrollers in the ’80s, PDAs and cell phones in the ’90s and now sub-$400 - soon to be sub-$300 notebooks.

Small and light enough to be carried everywhere, these sub-notes provide Internet access, PDA functionality and basic mail and document creation functionality at a rock-bottom price. Asustek is expected to build 1,000,000 Eee sub-notes in Q1 ‘08 alone. Asustek’s competitors are just getting warmed up.

What can Microsoft do?
Microsoft has gotten fat on the $50 Windows tax it charges PC manufacturers. But on a razor-thin margin vendors can’t afford Windows.
So they’re going with Linux. If Asustek sells 5 million Eee’s, and their competitors sell another 5 million, several million consumers will be introduced to desktop Linux for the first time. And millions of copies of Windows and Office won’t be sold.

Microsoft will skate in ‘08
For all the attention Apple gets for its growing market share, the Linux-based sub-$400 notebook/sub-$200 desktop unit sales will be several times as large in 2008. Even combined this won’t hurt Microsoft in 2008, thanks to the growing migration to Vista. 2009 is a different story. 25 million Linux desktops will take a bite out of Microsoft sales - one that Wall Street will certainly notice.

The Storage Bits take
Microsoft’s days as a de facto monopoly are coming to an end - and not a moment too soon. Increasingly desperate attacks on Linux will intensify, but how does Microsoft go after Wal-Mart?

Source: ZDNet

[praka123]

...not to forget the M$ and software patents and DRM root kits be eliminated-a positive look on 2008

[x3060]

i am looking for something positive too...
linux getting 50% market share

[praka123]

^unless M$ & winboys stop FUDing u cant expect such a share!

[ray|raven]

Hope this comes true.

Regards,
ray

[gxsaurav]

This is the same thing I heard 4 years back, 3 years back, 2 years back, 1 year back & today. How long do I have to listen this same old song of Linux Users living in thre "Happy world" before Linux can even be threat to the vast number of Windows users out there.

[d1g1t]

well, not in India, for now.

[Cyrus_the_virus]

Originally Posted by gx_saurav

This is the same thing I heard 4 years back, 3 years back, 2 years back, 1 year back & today. How long do I have to listen this same old song of Linux Users living in thre "Happy world" before Linux can even be threat to the vast number of Windows users out there.

I can't stop laughing at your ignorance about the difference between 4years and present day.

4years ago there was no Asus EeePC with Linux on it!

4Years ago, there was no $199 Wallmart PC with Linux on it!

4Years ago, there was no ubuntu!

4years ago, linux didn't have a growing market share!

4Years ago, you were ignorant.... and seems like the only thing that hasn't changed is this!

[azzu]

Originally Posted by Cyrus_the_virus

[IMG]
4Years ago, you were ignorant.... and seems like the only thing that hasn't changed is this!

lol

[din]

I am not into wars anymore and no replies regarding that too.

But a small mention - like what happened in Kerala in last 2 yrs. In Kerala all the schools are using Linux now, and from 2008, all school softwares including those for exams, sports meet, arts festivals etc will be pure open source - may be I am wrong, but I think it is a difference.

12316 schools in Kerala, taking the very minimum, that is 10 PC per school - makes is more than 1 lakh computers running on opensource and Linux And many major government agencies (Kerala Electricity Board, Water Authority etc) are also moving towards opensource, within 2-3 yrs, another 3 or 4 lakh PCs will also run in Linux.

Thats all the news form Kerala, oh I forgot, all these are desktop and not any command line ones

Will not post anymore in this thread. Thank you.

[The_Devil_Himself]

linux FTW!!!

[infra_red_dude]

I do not believe in any speculations. People said Linux will take over the world in an year, I didn't believe; People said the Nigerian govt. will use Mandrake, I didn't believe; People said Dell is coming with Ubuntu everywhere, I didn't believe (its only in US and possibly in Europe); People said Vista is great, I didn't believe.

I believe in what I see and when they happen. Fighting on someone's stats is lame. What if MS optimizes XP for EEE and OLPC and they go MS way? What if Dell starts giving Ubuntu in India? Things can change at the blink of an eye (remember the Mandrake and Nigeria issue)?

[Cyrus_the_virus]

@infra, the post is in no way a confirmation of things to happen, it's just speculation based on data available. Who's stopping anyone from making predictions?

Originally Posted by infra_red_dude

What if MS optimizes XP for EEE and OLPC and they go MS way?

OLPC foundation has already rejected speculation and any remote possibility of OLPC laptops running XP.

And if XP is ever going to sell on AsusEEE and compete with linux, then either microsoft has to give XP for free or stop charging manufacturers for the OS which MS is never going to do IMO

Originally Posted by infra_red_dude

What if Dell starts giving Ubuntu in India?

Then more people will be able to afford computers and there will be a substantial growth in Linux segment.

Originally Posted by infra_red_dude

Things can change at the blink of an eye (remember the Mandrake and Nigeria issue)?

And in the very next blink of the eye, the Nigerian government has confirmed that they are NOT going to strip linux and install windows.


The predictions made above are not any wild ones, they are based on actual factual data and recent developments which IMHO are highly possible. It's not some fantasy of taking over the world in a year, it's about the forthcoming outlook of increase in market share. Hope you understand the point.

[x3060]

yeah , Linux is gaining good and steady momentum now . . and Ubuntu is having a very agressive marketing strategy . which was something Linux lacked early . now things are starting to happen .

[infra_red_dude]

I understand the point and all I am saying is that its foolish to fight based on these things (and this is what's gonna happen eventually).

Lets post something like din did: 12316 schools in Kerala, taking the very minimum, that is 10 PC per school - makes is more than 1 lakh computers running on opensource and Linux

and not like: 2009 is a different story. 25 million Linux desktops will take a bite out of Microsoft sales etc. They are just absurd imho.

No one is stopping from making speculations. But such posts only give rise to wars. If there are some concrete numbers to prove (like din's post) it makes sense.

I'm not against posting such views but, I think, it is not going to help anyone. The idea of such things are to attract new users (its like saying 25million people will use Linux, why are you left behind???) then its not correct. Users need to be education about Piracy, OSS features etc.,

Anyways, just don't want another un-productive, useless, hopeless, crap, bull$h1t OS war here. Thats why I posted...

[MetalheadGautham]

please avoid OS wars and get to reality: One can only use what he/she is fit for/is comfortable with.

[Cyrus_the_virus]

Originally Posted by MetalheadGautham

please avoid OS wars and get to reality: One can only use what he/she is fit for/is comfortable with.

What has this thread anything to do with forcing someone?

It's just speculation based on market stats and future manufacturers proposal.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyone intending to turn this into any kind of your OS v/s my OS war, keep away from posting here! and I mean don't post!

[gxsaurav]

Originally Posted by Cyrus_the_virus

I can't stop laughing at your ignorance about the difference between 4years and present day.

4years ago there was no Asus EeePC with Linux on it!

4Years ago, there was no $199 Wallmart PC with Linux on it!

4Years ago, there was no ubuntu!

4years ago, linux didn't have a growing market share!

4Years ago, you were ignorant.... and seems like the only thing that hasn't changed is this!

4 Years laterm Linux is still complex compared to Windows & needs to be configured a lot to be good enough out of the box. Don't tell me U don't need to configure Ubuntu DVD edition too.

[Cyrus_the_virus]

Originally Posted by gx_saurav

4 Years laterm Linux is still complex compared to Windows & needs to be configured a lot to be good enough out of the box. Don't tell me U don't need to configure Ubuntu DVD edition too.

Not as much configuration that was needed 1year back let alone 4years back.

[gary4gar]

I agree linux is more complex than windows, but at the same instance its also more scalable
Things do change, like DELL has make customized edition of Ubuntu, with all the multimedia & full hardware support, so absolutely zero config needed.

Now if all hardware vendors follow the dell way, linux will offer better out of the box experience.
Yeah i too agree with you that linux is not that polished. though things are changing now, it will not be a thread to vista according to me.

but certainly it will be a competitor, and competition is always Good.
So i always encourage competition as it leads to innovation


its was my point of view maybe you will differ, ok i accept that

[gxsaurav]

Well, then Linux will sure be a victim of Ubunut's monopoly in the Linux Market

[praka123]

well!still Fedora may be the most popular distro with n00b's,who are not updated with Linux news!I have seen one institute running redhat 9 and claiming it is the latest one!(a yr back!)even.also Debian based distros really taken off after Ubuntu!anyways what will benefit ubuntu or fedora or suse is the benefit of Linux and FOSS community